Martin Courtney

Anybody who reads my column regularly will know that I am one of the most enthusiastic proponents of wireless mobility you are ever likely to encounter. However, the levels of hype and investment currently lavished on public-access wireless LAN hotspots across the UK seem excessive even from my perspective.

The latest news from WLAN operator The Cloud is that it hopes to put 7,000 hotspots in airports, railway stations, pubs, shops and other densely-populated meeting points and landmarks across the country. Make no mistake, The Cloud and many other providers are investing a serious amount of money in the technology. But have they done their market research properly?

With the laws on the use of the 2.4GHz and 5GHz radio frequency wavebands now clarified and the security holes in wireless kit reputedly plugged, the one uncertainty left in the equation is the one that is most likely to cause the hotspot business model to collapse. The fact is that providers face the real prospect of falling flat on their collective backsides if customer demand for wireless internet access from public locations fails to match their estimates.

Providers say that demand for hotspot services is assured because so many notebook and handheld PC manufacturers are building Wi-Fi ports into their products as standard. But the same is true of integrated FireWire, SecureID and CompactFlash ports - yet few people actually use them.

Consider also how many people have GPRS-enabled phones - the technology is now pretty much standard whichever handset you buy - then compare and contrast the number who are actually signed up to GPRS services. The argument simply doesn't add up.

There will certainly be a small proportion of people who will benefit from faster wireless internet access in public spaces, either for business or personal reasons. But how will the costs and convenience of accessing the web in this way, either on a pre-pay or ad-hoc usage contract, compare with alternative methods of browsing offered by hotel business centres, internet cafes, education centres, libraries or other locations where wired access is on offer?

And while everybody agrees that the one wireless mobile application likely to bring in the punters is email, this capability is already available efficiently and securely through a standard GSM phone and appropriate infrared port or data cable. Most of the target customers for WLAN hotspots already have equipment to access email in this way. And though GSM bandwidth is not great, it is more than sufficient for text transmission, and the coverage is far better and is not restricted to specific areas.

Never slow to spot an opportunity, the hardware vendors are busy dressing up their standard enterprise wireless equipment as specially optimised hotspot solutions, despite the fact that the actual differences between the two categories of kit are fairly minimal.

Where the current hype will end and the harsh realities will start to kick in is impossible to say, but you have to doubt whether all of the service providers, or the hotspots they offer, will still be operative in two years' time.

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