Guy Kewney

It is irritating to try your hand at prediction, simply because it never works. A year ago, looking forward to 2007, I was optimistic about conditions for IT staff.

In one sense I can claim to have been correct. Many of my friends in tech support, software development, system centre management, and in infrastructure provision, have seen their earnings climb and demand for their services increase. But that is of no comfort against a backdrop of a credit crunch.

There again, I can (technically) claim to have been on the spot. I can dig out two or three columns suggesting that the City and Wall Street were walking on air, like Wily Coyote beyond the cliff edge, and that a sanity check was in order.

This year, the future is bleak. In particular, all those whose expertise I most trust are convinced of one thing: that IT spending needs to rise, and rise sharply (at least two per cent of corporate gross turnover is a good consensus) if major organisations are to retain their ability to manage themselves.

And in a time of retrenchment, can you see corporate finance directors finding that sort of
extra cash? Can you even see them understanding why they should invest? Or, like me, do you see a glum future where they chirpily resolve to solve all their problems by outsourcing?

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